Predictions for 2005

We couldn’t start off the New Year without making some predictions of trends or events that we might see over the coming months. Nothing is ever that easy to forecast with the online market, but here are 5 predictions for 2005:

1) Spend on online advertising will continue its rapid rate of growth as more companies compete for web traffic. This will put more pressure on search advertising (pay-per-click) in particular, so that achieving an effective conversion rate and ROI (return on investment) will become harder to achieve in some competitive sectors. This will mean campaigns will need to become more effective in attracting and converting visits, but also long-term customer value will also need to be measured where possible. As the pressure on pay-per-click options and costs grow, other forms of online advertising will develop. One potential growth area will be related to the equivalent value of high ranking sites on Google that attract good traffic volumes and the opportunities for onsite advertising, sponsorship or other partnership options with related but non-competing sites. Link value will continue to be important for traffic as well as search engine rankings.

2) In the search engine market, the expected launch of MSN’s new search tool in the spring will not impact the established tools immediately, although we predict that Google will make a significant change to its ranking criteria at around the same time in an attempt to refine results further and retain users. The quality of MSN’s results will determine how much share it can gain, although initial tests are not that impressive. MSN are also likely to launch their own PPC scheme in the future, although this will not happen until 2006.

3) Specialised search will become a more prominent feature in 2005, ranging from subject specific search tools to local search filters gaining prominence. We also predict that Google will introduce an option to search within results by sub-categories of site, such as commercial or academic websites.

4) The number of companies offering search engine marketing services will stabilize next year as less scrupulous operators will fold or struggle for business as the more established and professional agencies will benefit from their experience in achieving effective solutions for clients, as well as website owners becoming more aware of scam operators in this field. A number of acquisitions will also begin to take place between larger agencies who continue to grow on the back of increasing online spend.

5) Finally, 2005 will be a make or break year for email spam. The quantity of this rubbish continues to spiral out of control and the increasing use of spam-busting software means that the use of email as both a marketing and general communication tool is suffering as a result. More concerted legal action will be taken to control the output of spam mail, supported by the world’s banks who are now coming under increasing pressure from ‘phishing’ emails.

We’ll see what happens as the year progresses and keep you informed of all the major developments in the online search and marketing field, either through this newsletter or via our regular reports to clients. So what do you think? Are there events that you would like to see, or not see in 2005? Let us know.

Leave a Reply